Free Man's Sky [EM8]

[Kannon]

"Mudir Nahya." Stilgar's wild beard pressed against the catchtube as his jaw locked. "It is Harkonnen then. The desert is infinite, but the rock isn't. We can find the place, but it may take weeks, less if more naibs commit, more if it is well-hidden, and less if God wills it. You won't be here this long. We have been told of the activity across the Habbanya Erg, but this is all we know for now. Do you have clues?"

[Bomilcar Thorvald]

"Direction," he says, assuming they knew already with Ahmina there. "Eliminate places cant be."

The obvious implication being that the base would not be near any sietch. And he suspected there were many in the region that only the worms called home. It should cut down on the amount of stone they would need to search.

[Kannon]

"Hard to eliminate. Some sietches in this area are abandoned. Maybe they took one?" Stilgar was deep in thought, but never truly abandoning alertness. "They haven't built anything east of Wind Pass for many years."

[Bomilcar Thorvald]

Yet more information that pointed to a greater truth. Abandoned sietches in numbers meant they were moving somewhere. Information that Mapes would hate that he was figuring out. "Animals attracted to refineries?" he asked, wondering if nature maybe had the answer.

[Kannon]

"Shai-hulud always comes." Stilgar agreed. "The lesson of Orgiz must have been hard for them."

[Bomilcar Thorvald]

He recognized the name from Cuyler's vision. She had shared that name. He looked to her then back to him. It was clear from his expression that something was particularly important about the name. "Orgiz? Please."

[Kannon]

Stilgar raised his brow. He wondered if the Ice Man was asking for explanation. "The Baron's father built a refinery in a canyon. A sandworm broke through and destroyed everything. It was a long time ago. I heard the story from my naib." Something about Stilgar's schadenfreude smirk was telling that the worm had been 'helped' somehow.

[Bomilcar Thorvald]

"Shai-hulud... Somewhere strongly protected. Best for that?"

[Kannon]

"It's hard to operate a refinery too far from the sand." Stilgar mused. "But possible."

[Cuyler Gray]

"Orgiz was the last time they tried to take more than they should." Cuyler said. "They definitely would take measures to prevent that from happening again."

[Dorian Drake]

Edwell listened and made projections of probability. They certainly did not have weeks to locate this secret base, the matter needed to be resolved in the next two days. The Fremen leader made a good point, there were only so many place that could accommodate a spice harvesting operation.

The story of Orgiz intrigued him. Could it be that simple? Harkonnen arrogance to defy the laws of Arrakis, to defy the Fremen and the Sandworms, and to exonerate their former failure. Rabban would certainly be arrogant enough for such a move, but would their mentat allow it, could he have prevent it if he wanted to?

Or would discretion prevail? It would still satisfy a psychopath like Rabban to house their operation in a sietch he had conquered. It would need to be large enough to house all the Harkonnen guards, the Uchan Mercenaries, and the Verdun workers, as well as their thopters, carryalls, harvesters, and refinery. Surely Stilgar would take into account the size necessary to accommodate a spice harvesting operation and yet he still considers an abandoned sietch as an option, just how large were the Fremen forces? For there to be enough options to take weeks to investigate, and each being large enough to house a base. That was only the abandoned sites. The implications...

OOC: Understand check to figure out the most probable course the Harkonnens would've taken?

[Kannon]

[The problem is so well formulated it's just Understand 2.]

[Dorian Drake]

Beginning to put the pieces together, Edwell spoke up, "Rabban is an arrogant one, he likes to show off, like the displays in Carthag. He may be using a sietch he took over. Or he may think he can succeed where his predecessors failed and rebuild Orgiz into a success..."
-----
EM8, Harkonnenhunter, Understand 7 + Truth 7, Focus deductive reasoning, TN 14, +1 threat for 1d20: 3#1d20 13 18 19
Failed 1 success vs 2 difficulty, unless Mentat trait reduced difficulty

[Kannon]

[Mentat applies.]

Upon some fine-tuning of the balancing, Edwell could project the following:

De Vries and/or the Baron's involvement in the plan didn't nullify the claim of Harkonnen hubris as the driver of possible restoration of Orgiz. In fact, it was highly unlikely it was Rabban's personal endeavour if the auditors' attribution of the mining facility to the Harkonnen was correct, nor that his uncle would have allowed involvement of any outside parties without his knowledge. In addition, there was devious yet sound logic in operating from what others assumed to have been irrevocably destroyed. Ways to improve on the flaws of the original perimeter could have been developed, especially with financing corresponding with the profitability of untaxed mining, or offworld investment from complicit parties. There were obvious flaws in such a design, and it was hard to tell whether they were or weren't outweighing the benefits.

Without any deeper knowledge of Fremen sietches, an assessment of their comparable advantage wasn't possible. Still, the factor of accidental discovery was higher as any such premises were potentially exposed to intermittent Fremen use. Wherever Orgiz was, it was probably not subject to as much random attention.

[Dorian Drake]

After staying silent for what seemed a moment, just a pause between words to the others, but was enough time for Edwell to run through multiple models in his mind, he spoke up, "Yes, it will be Orgiz, anyone who knows about it would overlook it as a lost attempt, a tale of caution, but it's a known variable to the Harkonnens. The abandoned sietches leave too much uncertainty."

[Bomilcar Thorvald]

Bomilcar nods at that. He didn't know how he had come to it, but he trusted Edwell to know what he was talking about.

[Kannon]

"Ah." Stilgar sighed thoughtfully. "That can be checked, and quickly. But if they have returned to Orgiz, the surroundings will be guarded and the defences will be hard to overcome. A man may sneak in, but you don't look to me like people who can sneak in. Harkonnen will fight you if the discover you. So, if you want to go in rather than just watch from afar, do you have an army?"

[Bomilcar Thorvald]

"No army. Exposing has potential. May be destroyed by Emperor. An opportunity. Need to get in base."

[Kannon]

"If Orgiz can be so damning in Emperor's eyes, the Harkonnen may still destroy everything that points to them there themselves if they learn that you know. Without a force, you may only have one time to do everything you need to do, and you can't make mistakes." Stilgar shrugged. He personally had no illusions to what lengths the Harkonnen were ready to go to get away with their crimes.

[Bomilcar Thorvald]

Bomilcar simply nods at that. It was true, and he suspected much the same as what Stilgar knew to be true. It would be a difficult gambit. They didn't have any type of recording equipment either that he knew of that could help.

[Kannon]

Stilgar dwelled on something for a moment.

"We're holding some smugglers, and their equipment. They told us they have some arrangement with you. Is it true?"

[Bomilcar Thorvald]

He hadn't made any personal arrangements with any as of yet, so he suspected the smugglers were with the group Cuyler knew if anyone here knew them. So he looked to her for the answer. He understood that she was the one that knew this place, so it was likely she knew them. He left it to her.

[Cuyler Gray]

"I have an arrangement with them." Cuyler nodded. "Thdy helped us with a difficult situation."

[Kannon]

"What is the arrangement?" Stilgar inquired more insistently in a voice that indicated it was an important question, and had to be answered truthfully else the budding trust between them Ahmina's vouching had won them would be frayed.

[Cuyler Gray]

"I owe them a favor." she answered. "For saving our lives. Prior to that, we showed mercy to one of theirs and were given information in return, a location."